Why Raila Odinga May Win in Round Two: Closer Look at March 4

The opinion polls released in the past one week by various research organizations seem to suggest that Raila Odinga is the candidate to beat in the 2013 elections. There are many reasons why Odinga has been the front runner. for four years, not forgetting the sympathy votes he has attracted for those who feel that it is him who won in 2007. With Raila Odinga as the flag bearer for CORD and Uhuru Kenyatta as flag bearer for Jubilee, the battle is going to be intense, but one that Jubilee should be ready to concede, going by the polls and what is in the air right now. The numbers and mood of the nation seem to favour CORD. The nation wants reforms, mature, honest and credible leadership. They want issues to dominate debate and issues about age and analogue and digital. That is so childish and balderdash and is rubbing Kenyans the wrong way. The Jubilee coalition has to deal with the dilemma of ICC as well as the anti-reform tag which it seems to have attracted given that William Ruto campaigned against a new constitution. Save for something drastic, it can now be stated unequivocally that Raila Odinga is likely to be the fourth President of Kenya, and the statements by various diplomatic representatives, including Johny Carson seem to suggest so . The Jubilee Coalition had a fighting chance, but the perceived anti-Kikuyu feeling after a combined 25 years at the helm has made many people to see any other non Kikuyu as a viable alternative. If Musalia Mudavadi was the flag beater for Jubilee the results would have been different. The battle would have been much closer. There seems a possibility that Amani Coalition may throw its weight behind CORD depending on what CORD will promise. Amani and Musalia Mudavadi will most likely believe CORD to deliver on their promises than Jubilee, going by history. For full article, write to Prof. Maurice Amutabi at amutabi@yahoo.com


About African Interdisciplinary Studies Association Website

Prof. Maurice Nyamanga Amutabi is President of African Interdisciplinary Studies Association (AISA), a pioneer professional associaiton bringing together members from all disciplines in Africa and abroad. He is a former Fulbright Scholar who previously worked as Deputy Vice Chancellor at Kisii University and also Director of Research and Professor in Peace and Strategic Studies at the Catholic University of Eastern Africa (CUEA), 2010-2013. He has previously taught at Central Washington University, USA (2005-2010) in African Studies Programme and Moi University (1992-2000) in the Department of Development Studies and other public universities in Kenya. Prof. Amutabi holds a PhD from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, USA in History and African Studies. He received his B.A (Hons) in 1989 in Political Science and History and M.A in 1991 from the University of Nairobi, Kenya. Maurice Amutabi is co-editor of Regime Change and Succession Politics in Africa: Five Decades of Misrule (with Shadrack Wanjala Nasong’o) – in 2013. Amutabi also co-edited Africa after Fifty Years: Retrospections and Reflections (with Toyin Falola and Sylvester Gundona) in 2012. Amutabi is the author of The NGO Factor in Africa: The Case of Arrested Development in Kenya (New York: Routledge, 2006). Amutabi is co-author of Nationalism and Democracy for People-Centered Development in Africa (Moi University Press, 2000). He has also co-authored Foundations of Adult Education in Africa (Cape Town/Hamburg: Pearson/UNESCO, 2005). He has written two novels, Because of Honor (a novel on Islam in Africa) and These Good People (a novel on corruption in Africa). Amutabi is also the author of Nakhamuma Stories (a collection of short stories from the Abaluyia community of western Kenya). His chapters have appeared in over thirty books. His articles have appeared in several refereed and reputable journals such as African Studies Review, African Contemporary Cultural Studies, Canadian Journal of African Studies, International Journal of Educational Development; and Jenda: A Journal of Culture and African Women Studies. Amutabi has made presentations at over one hundred national and international conferences. Amutabi is the Vice-President of the Kenya Studies and Scholars’ Association (KESSA), Kenya’s premier research and academic organization. He is the editor-in-chief of Kenya Studies Review and Eastern Africa Journal of Humanities and Sciences. Prof. Amutabi has conducted extensive research on many issues of development. He has taught courses on peace and conflict and gender and development. He teaches in the PhD and Masters Programme in the Institute of Peace and Security Studies at Kisii University. He enjoys blogging and writing and is an avid sports fan, but does not support any of team, preferring to support the team that plays well.
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